Monday, December 28, 2015

Updated Oscar Predictions

BY DYLAN ANDREW



The 2015 awards season is well underway now that the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Golden Globes have announced their nominees. While this has given us a better shape of the field, the selections by both groups demonstrate that this year is unusually wide open. Let's examine some of the key takeaways from both groups. 


The SAG nominations were, quite frankly, a little baffling. The Best Ensemble category featured "Beasts of No Nation", "The Big Short", "Spotlight", "Straight Outta Compton" and "Trumbo". Of those films, only Spotlight was an expected nominee, while expected nominees like "Carol" and "The Martian" fell to the wayside. Meanwhile, the Best Actress category saw the inclusion of two contenders (Sarah Silverman in "I Smile Back" and Helen Mirren in "The Woman in Gold") that nobody saw coming.

Bryan Cranston has unexpectedly become a solid bet for a Best Actor Oscar nom now after his lead performance in "Trumbo" received recognition from both bodies, as well as recognition from the Critics' Choice. Similarly, the expected choices of Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Revenant"), Michael Fassbender ("Steve Jobs") and Eddie Redmayne ("The Danish Girl") have all also secured nominations by each of these branches. However, the other expected choice of Matt Damon ("The Martian") didn't faire as well. While Damon received nominations from both the Globes and Critics' Choice, he failed to register with SAG, often the most indicative of the eventual Oscar nominees. 

On the Best Actress side of things, it appears as though the only solidified contenders at this point are Brie Larson ("Room"), Saoirse Ronan ("Brooklyn") and Cate Blanchett ("Carol"). The other two spots were occupied at SAG by the aforementioned Silverman and Mirren, while the Globes opted instead for Rooney Mara ("Carol") and Alicia Vikander ("The Danish Girl"), both of whom are campaigning as supporting at the Oscars. While Jennifer Lawrence ("Joy") has received nominations from both the Globes and Critics' Choice, her film, which is just starting to be seen widely, has gotten poor reviews (58% on RT) which could leave her vulnerable. 

Although "Spotlight" has seemingly solidified its place as this years frontrunner, it's notable supporting players have struggled to garner the nominations they were expected to receive. Both Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo were perceived favorites to receive nominations for their performances in the film but between the two of them, the only major nomination received so far has been a Critics' Choice Supporting Actor nom for Ruffalo. Meanwhile, Rachel McAdams, seen as a less likely contender for her performance in the film, received a Supporting Actress nomination from both SAG and the Critics' Choice while missing with the Globes. She appears to be the films' best chance at an acting nomination now.

In the supporting categories, Supporting Actor feels wide open with the consistent absence of expected nominees Keaton and Ruffalo. The two most consistent nominees have been Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies") and Idris Elba ("Beasts of No Nation"). Michael Shannon has become a surprise contender in this race as his performance in "99 Holmes" has received nominations from all three groups. In Supporting Actress, the category fluctuations of Mara and Vikander have made things trickier to predict, but a group of six major possibilities has started to solidify with Kate Winslet ("Steve Jobs"), Jennifer Jason Leigh ("The Hateful Eight"), Rachel McAdams ("Spotlight") and Helen Mirren ("Trumbo") also in the mix. 

So now, my updated Oscar predictions in all major categories...



BEST PICTURE-

  1. "Spotlight"
  2. "Carol"
  3. "The Martian"
  4. "The Revenant"
  5. "Brooklyn"
  6. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  7. "The Big Short"
  8. "Inside Out"
  9. "Bridge of Spies"
  10. "Room"


BEST DIRECTOR-

  1. Ridley Scott "The Martian"
  2. Thomas McCarthy "Spotlight"
  3. Todd Haynes "Carol"
  4. George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  5. Alejandro G. Inarritu "The Revenant"


BEST ACTOR-

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio "The Revenant"
  2. Michael Fassbender "Steve Jobs"
  3. Eddie Redmayne "The Danish Girl"
  4. Matt Damon "The Martian"
  5. Bryan Cranston "Trumbo"


BEST ACTRESS-

  1. Brie Larson "Room"
  2. Saoirse Ronan "Brooklyn"
  3. Cate Blanchett "Carol"
  4. Alicia Vikander "The Danish Girl"
  5. Jennifer Lawrence "Joy"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR-

  1. Sylvester Stallone "Creed"
  2. Mark Rylance "Bridge of Spies"
  3. Idris Elba "Beasts of No Nation"
  4. Michael Keaton "Spotlight"
  5. Michael Shannon "99 Homes"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS-

  1. Rooney Mara "Carol"
  2. Jennifer Jason Leigh "The Hateful Eight"
  3. Kate Winslet "Steve Jobs"
  4. Rachel McAdams "Spotlight"
  5. Helen Mirren "Trumbo"


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY-

  1. "Spotlight"
  2. "Inside Out"
  3. "Bridge of Spies"
  4. "The Hateful Eight"
  5. "Ex Machina"














BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY-

  1. "Steve Jobs"
  2. "The Martian"
  3. "The Big Short"
  4. "Room"
  5. "Brooklyn"













BEST FILM EDITING-

  1. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  2. "The Martian"
  3. "Spotlight"
  4. "The Big Short"
  5. "The Revenant"

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY-

  1. "The Revenant"
  2. "Sicario"
  3. "Carol"
  4. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  5. "Bridge of Spies"














BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN-

  1. "Carol"
  2. "Bridge of Spies"
  3. "The Martian"
  4. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
  5. "Mad Max: Fury Road"












BEST COSTUME DESIGN-

  1. "Carol"
  2. "Cinderella"
  3. "Brooklyn"
  4. "The Danish Girl"
  5. "Crimson Peak"














BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING-

  1. "Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. "The Revenant"
  3. "Black Mass"












BEST ORIGINAL SCORE-

  1. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
  2. "Inside Out"
  3. "Bridge of Spies"
  4. "The Hateful Eight"
  5. "The Danish Girl"



BEST SOUND EDITING-

  1. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
  2. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  3. "The Revenant"
  4. "Sicario"
  5. "Spectre"











BEST SOUND MIXING-

  1. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
  2. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  3. "The Martian"
  4. "Straight Outta Compton"
  5. "The Revenant"












BEST VISUAL EFFECTS-

  1. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
  2. "The Martian"
  3. "Mad Max: Fury Road"
  4. "Jurassic World"
  5. "The Walk"